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Troy Charlton
eXp Realty
Nashville Real Estate
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2025 Housing Market Forecasts: What To Expect
Looking ahead to 2025, it's important to know what experts are projecting for the housing market. And whether you're thinking of buying or selling a home next year, having a clear picture of what they’re calling for can help you make the best possible decision for your homeownership plans.Here’s an early look at the most recent projections on mortgage rates, home sales, and prices for 2025.Mortgage Rates Are Projected To Come Down SlightlyMortgage rates play a significant role in the housing market. The forecasts for 2025 from Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the National Association of Realtors (NAR), and Wells Fargo show an expected gradual decline in mortgage rates over the course of the next year (see chart below):Mortgage rates are projected to come down because continued easing of inflation and a slight rise in unemployment rates are key signs of a strong but slowing economy. And many experts believe these signs will encourage the Federal Reserve to lower the Federal Funds Rate, which tends to lead to lower mortgage rates. As Morgan Stanley says:“With the U.S. Federal Reserve widely expected to begin cutting its benchmark interest rate in 2024, mortgage rates could drop as well—at least slightly.”Expect More Homes To SellThe market will see an increase in both the supply of available homes on the market, as well as a rise in demand, as more buyers and sellers who have been sitting on the sidelines because of higher rates choose to make a move. That’s one big reason why experts are projecting an increase in home sales next year.According to Fannie Mae, MBA, and NAR, total home sales are forecast to climb slightly, with an average of about 5.4 million homes expected to sell in 2025 (see graph below):That would represent a modest uptick from the lower sales numbers in 2023 and 2024. For reference, about 4.8 million total homes were sold in 2023, and expectations are for around 4.5 million homes to sell this year.While slightly lower mortgage rates are not expected to bring a flood of buyers and sellers back to the market, they certainly will get more people moving. That means more homes available for sale – and competition among buyers who want to purchase them.Home Prices Will Go Up ModeratelyMore buyers ready to jump into the market will put continued upward pressure on prices. Take a look at the latest price forecasts from 10 of the most trusted sources in real estate (see graph below):On average, experts forecast home prices will rise nationally by about 2.6% next year. But as you can see, there’s a range of opinions on how much prices will climb. Experts agree, however, that home prices will continue to increase moderately next year at a slower, more normal rate. But keep in mind, prices will always vary by local market.Bottom LineUnderstanding 2025 housing market forecasts can help you plan your next move. Whether you're buying or selling, staying informed about these trends will ensure you make the best decision possible. Reach out to a trusted real estate agent to discuss how these forecasts could impact your plans.
Why National Data Doesn't Tell the Whole Story
When it comes to real estate and the real estate market, the news media often paints an incomplete picture. While this information can provide a broad overview of trends and patterns, it doesn't always accurately reflect what's happening in specific local markets. National statistics can sometimes paint a picture that doesn't align with the experiences of buyers, sellers, and investors in various regions. For instance, a national report might indicate a cooling housing market with slowing price growth and increasing inventory. However, this doesn't necessarily mean that your local market is experiencing the same trends. In many cities and towns across the country, real estate conditions can differ significantly due to factors such as local economic conditions, population growth, and housing supply constraints. Take, for example, a booming tech hub like Austin, Texas. Even if national data suggests a slowdown, Austin might still be seeing rapid price increases and high demand due to its strong job market and influx of new residents. Conversely, a city facing economic challenges may experience a much cooler market than what national averages suggest. It's also important to note that real estate is inherently hyper-local. Neighborhoods within the same city can have vastly different market dynamics. A downtown area with new developments might be thriving while suburban areas could be experiencing slower growth or even declines in property values. For those involved in real estate transactions or investments, relying solely on national media reports can lead to misguided decisions. Instead, it's crucial to consult local experts who understand the nuances of your specific market. Real estate agents, local appraisers, and regional economic reports provide invaluable insights that can help you make informed decisions tailored to your unique situation. In summary, while national media provides useful general information about the real estate market, it's essential to dig deeper into local data for an accurate understanding of your specific area's conditions. Always remember: real estate is local, and what happens nationally might not be happening in your neighborhood.
The Number One Mistake Sellers Are Making: Overpricing Their House
In today's housing market, many sellers are making a critical mistake: overpricing their houses. This common error can lead to a home sitting on the market for a long time without any offers. And when that happens, the homeowner may have to drop their asking price to try to re-ignite buyer interest.Data from Realtor.com shows the number of homeowners realizing this mistake and doing a price reduction is climbing (see graph below):If you’re thinking about making a move yourself, here’s what you need to know. The best way to avoid making a costly mistake is to work with a trusted real estate agent to find the right price. Here’s a look at what’s at stake if you don’t.Not Paying Attention To Current Market ConditionsUnderstanding current market conditions is key to accurate pricing. You don’t want to set your asking price based on what happened during the pandemic. The market has moderated a lot since then, so it’s far better to align your price with today’s reality.Real estate agents stay updated on market trends and how they impact the pricing strategy for your house.Pricing It Based on What You Want To Make (Not What It’s Worth)Another misstep is pricing it based on what you want to make on the sale, and not necessarily current market value. You may see other homes in your neighborhood selling for top dollar and assume yours can do the same. But you may not be considering differences in size, condition, and features. For example, maybe that other house is waterfront or has a finished basement. To sum it up, Bankrate explains:“How do you find that sweet spot of pricing for profit but not overpricing? The expertise of your agent can be truly valuable here. A knowledgeable agent will understand fair market value in your area, how much your house is worth and how much you might reasonably expect to get for it in the current market.”An agent will do a comparative market analysis (CMA) to make sure your house is compared with truly similar properties to get an accurate look at how it should be priced.Pricing High to Leave Room for NegotiationAnother common, yet misguided strategy is to price your house high on purpose, so you have more room to negotiate down during the sale. But this can backfire. A price that seems too high often deters potential buyers from even considering the home. So rather than leaving room for negotiation, what you’ll actually be doing is turning buyers away. U.S. News Real Estate explains:“You want to sell your house for top dollar, but be realistic about the value of the property and how buyers will see it. If you've overpriced your home, chances are you'll eventually need to lower the number, but the peak period of activity that a new listing experiences is already gone.”An agent can help you set a fair price that attracts buyers and encourages more competitive offers.Bottom LineOverpricing your home can have serious consequences. A knowledgeable real estate agent brings an objective perspective, in-depth market knowledge, and a strategic approach to pricing.Connect with a local real estate professional to avoid making a pricing mistake that’ll cost you.